Obamacare: Yes? No? Maybe so?
A quick guide to what’s happening
January 25, 2017
Republicans have been campaigning against “Obamacare” (the Affordable Care Act) since before the bill was passed into law, and the GOP has held firm to its conviction that it be “repealed and replaced.” Up until now, they have been unable to accomplish this – they did try repeatedly once they gained majorities in the House and eventually the Senate, but these efforts were vetoed by Obama.
Now that there are Republican majorities in the House and Senate, and with a Republican White House, they have the chance to follow through. As a quick refresher, Obamacare:
1. Creates an individual mandate (a tax) as a penalty for anyone who doesn’t have insurance,
thus incentivizing people who normally wouldn’t buy insurance to go out and do so.
2. Expands Medicaid (a government-run insurance program) to everyone below 133 percent of the poverty line. (States had the option of turning down the expansion and federal funding that came with it; some did.)
3. Gives subsidies to people above that line so they can afford the insurance they buy (at least theoretically).
4. Creates unified marketplaces where insurance can be bought and sold.
5. Bans denying coverage due to pre-existing conditions.
6. Allows people to stay on their parents’ insurance up to age 26.
You may have heard that Congress recently took the first steps towards repeal.
Essentially, they have passed a resolution which directs the individual committees to look for ways to cut the budget, which is understood to mean Obamacare. This is preparation of a budgetary and tax code change which would be used to defund the Medicaid expansion, subsidies, and to repeal the individual mandate tax.
Basically, it would defund it.
However, Republicans need a 60-seat majority in the Senate to actually pass a full on repeal (they have 52), and there is zero expectation that they can get eight Democratic votes. This also applies to a plan to replace Obamacare, which means that any replacement plan would need to be bipartisan. Democrats have made clear their unwillingness to help Republicans.
The Republicans have made claims that none of the 20 million people who have been insured since Obamacare was passed will lose their coverage; there are also statements that there will be lower premiums and deductibles.
Democrats disagreed vehemently with the notion that Republicans will be able to deliver. Recently, the Congressional Budget Office (a nonpartisan research office) released a report that a repeal, as currently planned, without replacement in place, will lead to 36 million people losing insurance, and doubled premiums and deductibles for those who don’t lose it.
This is why several Republicans have raised serious concerns about “repealing without replacing.”
As of yet, no replacement plan has been officially endorsed by Republican leadership.