MADISON, Wisc. — Illinois will be a blue state in the 2024 presidential election, polls show. But the state’s northern neighbor will likely play a larger role in determining whether Kamala Harris or Donald Trump take the White House.

On Friday, September 20th, Harris was in Wisconsin’s capital city of Madison to highlight the Badger State’s role.

“The election is basically here,” said the vice president at a campaign event that attracted 11,000 people. “It’s basically here, and we have work to do.”

Wisconsin, with 10 electoral votes, has voted for the winner of the presidential election six out of eight last elections. In 2020, President Joe Biden won the state by 0.63 percentage points. Many pollsters are calling the state a toss-up again this year.

Wisconsin Secretary of State Sarah Godlewski attended the rally. With Illinois’ result mostly predetermined, it’s different to the north.

“It’s really exciting to know that the road to the White House runs through Wisconsin and that our voices matter,” she said. “And you know what, Kamala is showing up because that stuff makes a difference and she’s listening to Wisconsinites and she’s going to deliver.”

On Sept. 7, Trump rallied in the central Wisconsin city of Mosinee. And before Biden dropped out of the race, he campaigned in Madison.

Friday’s rally was announced only a couple days before the event with little advertisement.

“I was surprised; I really was,” said Wisconsin resident Reenie Euhardy. “I was like Kamala’s coming back to Madison. How fun is that, because I didn’t see that coming.”

According to the book “Illinois Politics A Citizen’s Guide to Power, Politics and Government,” Illinois is a Democratic state mainly because of Cook County and the suburbs that surround it. Chicago city has stayed Democrat while the suburbs that used to lean Republican now lean Democrat. This is due to population changes as immigration greatly increased the population of Hispanic voters that lean Democrat.

Beyond northeastern Illinois, the rest of the state leans Republican and has become more Republican over the years. However, with the Democrat population in and surrounding Cook County is so large, it becomes an insurmountable wall for Republican presidential candidates to gain Illinois’ 19 electoral votes.

A familiar story plays out in Wisconsin, with larger cities like Madison and Milwaukee leaning Democrat. But their population is much smaller than Chicago, which gives Republicans a fighting chance to turn the state red.

“I think it’s just this battle between rural areas and the urban,” said Maria Loy Carson, a Wisconsin rally attendee.

“I think the progressive cities like Madison, you know, we trend blue always,” said another Wisconsinite Rosa Thompson. “And I think when you go out into the rural areas and farms they vote along certain interests and those don’t always align with the Democrats.”

Because Illinois presidential rallies are a rarity, Wisconsin is the closest swing state for Illinosians to attend presidential campaign events.

This can be seen in the small businesses in Wisconsin. Anthology is a small shop in downtown Madison that has been selling political merchandise since Barack Obama’s election in 2008.

“We have a lot of people come up from Illinois even like during the summer time to come shopping and hang out in Madison,” said co-owner Laura Komai. “We’ve been selling buttons like crazy since August.”

During Harris’ speech, the crowd filled the arena with cheers and boos as she discussed abortion, union rights and the housing crisis.

The rally included many speakers, including Wisconsin Gov. Tony Evers and U.S. Sen. Tammy Baldwin, who all spoke about one person: Trump.

“Just get this over with,” said Wisconsin resident Roberta Carnes. “Just please, please have the election and win and just you know, send off Trump to you know wherever he’s going to. I realize he’s never going away but.”

Wisconsin Republican U.S. Sen. Ron Johnson held a press conference in the Capitol hours before Harris arrived in Madison. He criticized Democrats and the Biden-Harris administration.

“The reality of the situation that they caused — the open border, the four-year-high inflation, the weakness that America’s demonstrating to our global adversaries, which have literally set our world in flames,” he said.

Cameron Maine is a graduate student in UIS’ Public Affairs Reporting program.